The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common?

Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper?

What can Catherine the Great’s lovers tell us about probability?

Why are almost all forecasters con-artists?

This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they’re nearly impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalise them. A rallying cry to ignore the ‘experts, The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything and take advantage of uncertainty.